The war between the US, Israel and Iran is intensifying. NPR’s Adrian Ma speaks with Yossi Melman, who reports on Israeli intelligence, about the state of the conflict as it enters its fourth week.
ADRIAN MA, HOST:
We begin tonight’s program in the Middle East, where the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran is intensifying as it enters the fourth week. Overnight, Iran struck two cities near Israel’s nuclear research center. And on Saturday, President Trump threatened to, quote, “obliterate Iran’s power plants if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.” That follows another week of strikes by the U.S. and Israel, including two targeted strikes that killed Iran’s minister of intelligence and its top national security advisor.
Now, since the war began, the Trump administration and Israeli government have boasted about their ability to find and assassinate top leaders in the Iranian government. Yossi Melman has been watching all of this from Israel. He’s a journalist in Tel Aviv who covers intelligence and strategic affairs, and he’s also coauthor of the book, “Spies Against Armageddon.” Thank you so much for taking the time.
YOSSI MELMAN: My pleasure, Adrian.
MA: And let me start with getting your reaction to Iran’s overnight strikes in southern Israel. They struck near a research center which is widely believed to be connected to Israel’s nuclear program. You’re based in Israel. What is the feeling there right now?
MELMAN: Well, actually, there was no surprise because all of Israel is basically covered and a target for Iranian ballistic missiles, and – one shouldn’t forget – also for Hezbollah from Lebanon’s missiles. They are striking all parts of Israel, including my town. This morning, there were fragments which hit not far from where I live.
MA: So if not surprised, what do those strikes tell you about the status of the war?
MELMAN: That it is becoming a war of attrition, with no sign of ending it. Israelis – a lot of Israelis are fatigue. Most Israelis are waking up every night for the last 23 days, three, four, five times a night and running to the shelters. Some of Israelis have shelters in their own houses, but many of the population – nearly 30% – have no shelter at all. So there is a feeling of fatigue, feeling that we don’t see an end to it, and it’s very, very difficult to maintain a daily routine.
MA: You called it a war of attrition, which, you know, I presume is not what Israel wants out of this. Like, earlier this week, Israel killed two top Iranian leaders, National Security Advisor Ali Larijani and Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib. They’re part of this strategy of so-called decapitation strikes, basically high-level assassinations. Can you talk about this strategy by the Israeli military?
MELMAN: This is a long-standing strategy of Israel started in the ’60s against German scientists in Egypt, then continued to scientists working for Saddam Hussein in Iraq, recently, Hamas leaders, and now military and political leaders and religious leaders of Iran are being targeted. It gives a feeling that Israel is in love in this kind of targeted killing or assassinations and believe this is the only solution as a problem solver. But it’s wrong because it doesn’t lead us anywhere. Every leader, every commander that has been killed, sooner or later, a replacement is being found.
What happened, I think, that Israel and the United States and President Trump believe that if they kill the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, the opening shot of the war, a chain reaction would be created. The masses – Iranian masses would rush to the streets and will topple the government, or at least there will be some sort of a coup d’etat from within the regime – moderate forces in the regime will take over. This war began as a big gamble, and the chips are now not in the favor of Israel and the United States.
MA: So Israel has been relying on this strategy for a long time. What do we know about how they get done?
MELMAN: When it comes to Iran, it’s a work of many, many years back. The Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence agency and the military intelligence, have been penetrating Iran – bugging telephones, shadowing people, recruiting agents, smuggling weapons inside the country, building safe houses – that when the order is given, everything will be in place, and it will be possible to execute the decision. Iran is a country of mosaic (ph), a lot of ethnical minorities, and many of them don’t like the regime and are ready to cooperate with Israel. Some of them do it of ideology, others for financial rewards, others because they hate the regime. Israel has sufficient infrastructure to come and to strike time and again, time again against top leaders, nuclear scientists and political leaders.
MA: To zoom out for a second, last June, amid the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, you spoke to a top official from Israel’s spy agency, and he told you, quote, “a war is measured by how it ends, not by how successful the first strike is.” What do you make of that now as the war enters week four?
MELMAN: Well, that saying still holds. We don’t see how it ends. Just nine months ago, Israel and the United States – mostly Israel, with the help of the United States – attacked Iran. Then President Trump prided himself that he obliterated Iranian nuclear sites, and Netanyahu, our Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said that he ensured the existence of Israel for generations. And here we are nine months after. We are doing more of the same, more of the same with no tangible results, and maybe we are going into a perpetual war.
MA: We’ve been speaking with Yossi Melman, a journalist who covers Israel intelligence and strategic affairs. He’s also coauthor of the book, “Spies Against Armageddon.” Thank you so much for taking the time.
MELMAN: Thank you, Adrian.
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